Wow, a second blog post in as many weeks! (For yet another reason) I am impressed with myself.
I've been thinking about how to approach my upcoming fantasy football drafts from the quarterback perspective. Usually, I look for three characteristics in my QB:
So which QBs am I targeting in 2015? Let's look at some data to help inform my decision. In the chart below, I plotted each QB's 2014 total fantasy points (FP) against their variance, a statistical measure of how each QB's weekly point total deviated from the mean. The variance is all about consistency: the lower the variance, the more consistent the QB is in terms of scoring. Finally, the color scale of each point represents that player's current (as of August 21, 2015) average draft pick (ADP) as determined by FantasyPros. Green means low ADP (generally selected early in the draft), while red means high ADP (selected later). Let's see what we get:
Pardon the labeling, I know it's difficult to read. I didn't feel like messing around too much in R to make the text legible. In any case, our best QBs should fall to the bottom right (highest fantasy points, lowest variance). Indeed, we see names down there like Andrew Luck and Drew Brees. Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning are high on the points scale, but show a bit more inconsistency. Both players had relatively poor stretches (Rodgers in the first few games, Manning in the last few) in 2014, which raises their variance. But look at how dark green (low ADP) these guys are. I don't want to spend a high pick on one of them.
What I'm looking for are QBs who are kind of lighter green to yellow (ADP roughly 60-120), someone you can get between rounds 5 and 10 in a 12-team draft. I also want someone with low variance (say < 100) and high points (say 300 FP for the season). Drawing an imaginary vertical line at the 300 FP mark, and a horizontal one at 100 for variance, I see a few interesting names pop up in lighter shades of green:
I've been thinking about how to approach my upcoming fantasy football drafts from the quarterback perspective. Usually, I look for three characteristics in my QB:
- Score - obviously I'm looking for the highest scoring QB available
- Consistency - perhaps not so obviously, I'm looking for someone who will guarantee me a certain number of points per week
- Value - since I'd rather spend my first few picks on RBs and WRs, I'm looking for someone I can get in later rounds for a good price
So which QBs am I targeting in 2015? Let's look at some data to help inform my decision. In the chart below, I plotted each QB's 2014 total fantasy points (FP) against their variance, a statistical measure of how each QB's weekly point total deviated from the mean. The variance is all about consistency: the lower the variance, the more consistent the QB is in terms of scoring. Finally, the color scale of each point represents that player's current (as of August 21, 2015) average draft pick (ADP) as determined by FantasyPros. Green means low ADP (generally selected early in the draft), while red means high ADP (selected later). Let's see what we get:
Pardon the labeling, I know it's difficult to read. I didn't feel like messing around too much in R to make the text legible. In any case, our best QBs should fall to the bottom right (highest fantasy points, lowest variance). Indeed, we see names down there like Andrew Luck and Drew Brees. Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning are high on the points scale, but show a bit more inconsistency. Both players had relatively poor stretches (Rodgers in the first few games, Manning in the last few) in 2014, which raises their variance. But look at how dark green (low ADP) these guys are. I don't want to spend a high pick on one of them.
What I'm looking for are QBs who are kind of lighter green to yellow (ADP roughly 60-120), someone you can get between rounds 5 and 10 in a 12-team draft. I also want someone with low variance (say < 100) and high points (say 300 FP for the season). Drawing an imaginary vertical line at the 300 FP mark, and a horizontal one at 100 for variance, I see a few interesting names pop up in lighter shades of green:
- Matt Ryan
- Ryan Tannehill
- Philip Rivers
- Tony Romo
All of these guys are excellent prospects who can deliver points consistently for a cheap price. Tannehill in particular intrigues me. Here's a guy who's had solid improvement over his last two years in the NFL and seems to be trending upwards. He's finally got some great weapons at his disposal and is improving his deep ball. On top of it all, you can get him 40-50 picks after Luck and Rodgers! I'm probably going to target him in every draft, but I don't think you can go wrong with any of the aforementioned prospects.
Some close outliers with respect to our criteria:
- Tom Brady
- Jay Cutler
- Eli Manning
- Joe Flacco
I'm not gung-ho on any of these fellows, but I would maybe take Eli in a pinch given the fact that he'll have Beckham and Cruz at his disposal this year. Brady is clearly the best of the bunch but I'm turned off by his four-game suspension. I'd rather not have to wrestle with QB backups as that takes up valuable roster spots.
This, of course, should not be construed as proof that you should wait a few rounds before taking a QB. Rather, this data tells us who to pick assuming this premise is true. Maybe that's another blog post for another day.
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